The odds
What are the odds?
When you gamble you bet that the unexpected will happen, but do you know what your chances of winning really are? This table shows the odds of winning on some of the common forms of gambling available in Victoria. No matter what the form of gambling you should always expect to lose.
| Bet | Odds of Winning | Typical Prize |
|---|---|---|
| Poker Machines – Getting 5 Black Rhinos on Black Rhinos Machine (Top Prize) ($1 Bet per line) | 1 in 9,765,625 | $5000 |
| Tattslotto – Winning First Division (Getting all 6 numbers correct) | 1 in 8,145,060 | $300,000 - $1m+ |
| Powerball – Winning First Division (Getting all 5 numbers & the Powerball correct) | 1 in 54,979,155 | $3m - $15m |
| The Pools – Winning First Division (Getting all 6 numbers correct) | 1 in 2,760,681 | $500,000 - $700,000 |
| Super 66 – Winning First Division (Getting all 6 numbers correct) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $60,000 - $90,000 |
| Super 7’s Oz Lotto – Winning First Division (Getting all 7 numbers correct) | 1 in 45,379,620 | $1m – $5m |
| Trackside – Horse number 1 wins race ($1 Bet) | 21 in 100 | $4 |
| Trackside – Horse number 12 wins race ($1 Bet) | 2 in 100 | $35 |
| Casino – Roulette (Single Zero) – Winning Straight Up (Correct bet on a single number) ($5 Bet) | 1 in 37 | $180 |
| Casino – Roulette (Single Zero) – Winning Black/Red, High/Low or Odd/Even ($5 Bet) | 18 in 37 | $10 |
| Casino – Big Wheel – Getting the Joker (Pays 47-1) ($5 Bet) | 1 in 52 | $240 |
When you compare these odds with some of the things that could happen to you, do you feel lucky? Do you still think your odds of winning when gambling are good?
| Bet | Odds of occurring |
|---|---|
| Dying of Heart Disease | 1 in 3 people |
| Having a back problem | 1 in 4.8 people |
| Having some form of cancer in the last 12 months | 1 in 6.3 people |
| Taken a sick day from work in the last two weeks | 1 in 7 people |
| Having high blood pressure | 1 in 10 people |
| Being assaulted during the last 12 months | 1 in 21.2 people |
| Having your home broken into in the last 12 months | 1 in 21.3 households |
| Being injured after falling from a height less than 1 metre in the last four weeks | 1 in 25 people |
| A woman giving birth to twins | 1 in 44 women |
| Being stung or bitten by something in the last four weeks | 1 in 55 people |
| An Australian person dying in a terrorist attack | 1 in 333,333 people |
| Being killed by lightning | 1 in 1,603,250 people |
Things that you think are rare often happen more often than winning at gambling. Also if you regularly try your luck at gambling you increase your chances of developing an issue with gambling. If you gamble at least once a week on anything other than lotteries, you have an almost 1 in 7 chance of developing an issue with gambling - better odds than winning any prize on a single payline of a poker machine.
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I find it amazing that the most powerful argument is not mentioned here.
All forms of pokies have been developed on a psychological model. A simple rat pressing a lever to get a fed would press it for longer with no return if the occasional return is random and the amount is random.
These machines are designed on that model. The random rate of winning and the amount is precisely developed such that you will only leave at a point of desperation.
Gambling should be treated as entertainment only. There is nothing wrong with gambling every so often but you should set aside a set amount of money to gamble that you can afford to lose and if you lose it just stop.
Good article, well researched.
On Gambling... What is the real cost and gamble of getting financially confortable for all your efforts?
Real cost of typical $40,000 car over 5 years approx. $125,000 minus $15,000 depreciated tradein value, every 5 years.
Real cost of $450,000 median home ownership over 30 years approx. $1.3M (Could build your own in bush for $300?).
Coupled with unnecessary purchases of 'Shiny things', multi-layered taxes on most things, regular bills, and a miriad of miscellaneous expenses associated with ordinary western life ...
Probability of mass majority getting comfortably wealthy by retirement, I believe is close to zero.
Considering the added cost to the environment of this lifestyle, what a gamble your politicians (and yourselves) are taking with this world. If you know what I mean. The million children killed in Iraq alone, in your name and for your benefit, count toward this gamble in my view.
Longterm gambling on bluechip stockmarket backed by research - probility of keeping ahead of inflation, well above 80%.
Hedging investments using a great deal of experience and knowledge. Very close to 100% and high growth rate. Example: look at 30 year log charts of DJI versus FTSE. These stock index prices vary everyday and having never more than a ratio of 1.8 to 2.18 over decades. They track closely. Buy one sell the other and you make lots with 98%+ probability, if your patient with your spread-betting. Not the strongest hedging there is, but I've been doing this for a long time.
Best of luck with the Tats and casino.
Lloyd
@Ben - Addictive gamblers are people who have false or irrational hopes and expectations of winning big. It doesn't matter how the betting is going, they're falsly expecting to win big.
Feel a bit of compassion for these people: its not entirely their fault, and a lot of them would be thankful to be pulled away from it.
Sorry you seem frustrated by this mathematical analysis but for me I see the point here. There are plenty of ways to make a lot of money and not in long term sound investments maturity. I think we all know how that went.
The thing I like about about the facility of Lotto, even once a week and, say, only one set of numbers for around $3.50 is that it gives ordinary people with less financial nous, while you are striving to "get there" and pay off your mortgage, car, etc. and watch your pay disappear every week, a glimmer of hope, however, miniscule, that your numbers just could come in, nigh impossible though it may be. You don't actually expect to win, but there is just that faintest of faintest of chances while you still strive to get there on the "slow boat". I like the notion of having a little ticket in the system and then trying to get rich before I ever have a win, so you can still say you did it yourself; just somehow gives the journey some spice and helps to take the drudgery out of it.
If this seems stupid, I don't smoke, drink or go out clubbing - I don't even wear make up so I don't think I am a spender and justify my little weekly buzz this way. Also, it is nice to know that the money is going to charity (for Lotto, anyway?).
there is a difference between the odds of something happening within the population (ie occurances within a population from which odds are calculated) and chris's examples where he/she focuses on an individuals choices that affect their personal chances. i do not play poker machines so my chances of winning are 0. so yes they are not a completely accurate comparisons (eg. there is a higher proportion of older than younger people who have had cancer in the last year). however this does not change the message that the odds of winning a relatively small amount of money ($5000) on the pokies is almost unbelievably miniscule. chris's examples themselves are extremely selective, are you saying chris that you will spend your entire life both playing lottery and existing only in sunny nights (day?!) and clear skies? the probability of you being able to do this is itself infinitely small. while the odds you use are calculated inclusive of people who spend more time outside in stormy weather so to are they calculated inclusive of those people who spend thousands of dollars a month trying to win this paltry $5000. when all is evened out then the odds above provide a message that bears truth.
hello they should just get more social or something
thanxxxxxxxxx pull your heads in
If you believe in an infinite universe, where all possibilities exist simultaneously... then the odds of winning big are 100%. Unfortunately, the odds of you loosing are also 100%.
I am locked in a constant gamble, without visiting a casino.
My payout was my gift of being alive.
My wager is my time.
The stakes are higher than I could ever imagine.
Don't you have something else you should be doing today?
These probabilities are not fair comparisons. One in three dying from heart disease does not mean 1/3 probability of me dying right now, in front of a pokie. Same for lightening - while I play the lottery, on a sunny night and a clear sky, my probability of winning is actually higher than my probability of being hit by lightening. Very selective use of examples.
So if it is soooooo natural, Ben, why is it NOT a problem for everyone? How come some people can wager a pre-set amount and stop there and others can not? Or are you saying only people with short attention spans gamble? Sometimes realizing you stand a better chance of dying of a heart disease or being struck by lightning puts things in perspective. Sorry you seem frustrated by this mathematical analysis but for me I see the point here. There are plenty of ways to make money, alot of money and not in long term sound investments maturity. I think we all know how that went. Which oh by the way can also be considered gambling. Well good luck to you, I personally think the site is helpful insight as to why people get caught up in this horribly destructive disease of compulsive gambling.
BEN, you r a pessimist!!!!!!!
People gamble because they have short attention spans, have a desire to make money and aren't happy to wait for sound long term investments to mature. Its been going on for thousands of years and will continue to due so. Humans have known the basic maths behind the probabilities of gambling and the fact that you can't win since the days of Pascal and Fermat in the mid 1600's, and yet more people than ever are gambling. It's a noble hearted cause to want to try and stop it, but unfortunately you can't change nature.
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